Survival analysis under imperfect record linkage using historic census data.

BACKGROUND: Advancements in linking publicly available census records with vital and administrative records have enabled novel investigations in epidemiology and social history. However, in the absence of unique identifiers, the linkage of the records may be uncertain or only be successful for a subset of the census cohort, resulting in missing data. For survival analysis, differential ascertainment of event times can impact inference on risk associations and median survival. METHODS: We modify some existing approaches that are commonly used to handle missing survival times to accommodate this imperfect linkage situation including complete case analysis, censoring, weighting, and several multiple imputation methods. We then conduct simulation studies to compare the performance of the proposed approaches in estimating the associations of a risk factor or exposure in terms of hazard ratio (HR) and median survival times in the presence of missing survival times. The effects of different missing data mechanisms and exposure-survival associations on their performance are also explored. The approaches are applied to a historic cohort of residents in Ambler, PA, established using the 1930 US census, from which only 2,440 out of 4,514 individuals (54%) had death records retrievable from publicly available data sources and death certificates. Using this cohort, we examine the effects of occupational and paraoccupational asbestos exposure on survival and disparities in mortality by race and gender. RESULTS: We show that imputation based on conditional survival results in less bias and greater efficiency relative to a complete case analysis when estimating log-hazard ratios and median survival times. When the approaches are applied to the Ambler cohort, we find a significant association between occupational exposure and mortality, particularly among black individuals and males, but not between paraoccupational exposure and mortality. DISCUSSION: This investigation illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different imputation methods for missing survival times due to imperfect linkage of the administrative or registry data. The performance of the methods may depend on the missingness process as well as the parameter being estimated and models of interest, and such factors should be considered when choosing the methods to address the missing event times.

Exogenous Insulin Therapy Is Associated with the Risk of Advanced Colorectal Adenoma in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Exogenous insulin therapy increases systemic exposure to insulin which may promote the development of colorectal neoplasia. We sought to evaluate the association between exogenous insulin therapy and the incidence of advanced adenoma in type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 1, 2007, to January 1, 2018, in a regional health system serving the United States Philadelphia metropolitan area, Central New Jersey, and South Central Pennsylvania. Study patients consisted of a random sample of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus aged 40-80 years who had undergone two rounds of colonoscopy examinations. The exposure was cumulative duration of insulin therapy (i.e., no use, 1-365 days and > 365 days). The outcome was time to incident advanced adenoma. RESULTS: Of the 975 eligible patients, 184 patients accumulated > 365 days of insulin therapy before the follow-up colonoscopy. The mean (standard deviation) duration between the two rounds of colonoscopy examination was 5.1 (2.9) years among the insulin users and 5.3 (3.9) years among non-users. Compared to no insulin exposure, receiving > 365 days of insulin therapy was associated with an increased incidence of advanced adenoma (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 4.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.82-8.30), right-sided advanced adenoma (aHR 5.48, 95% CI 2.90-10.35), and 3 or more adenomas (aHR 2.61, 95% CI 1.46-4.69) at the follow-up colonoscopy examination. CONCLUSION: Insulin therapy is associated with an increased risk of advanced adenoma and may serve as a novel risk-stratification factor to enhance the efficiency of existing colorectal cancer screening and surveillance programs.

Intrathecal bivalent CAR T cells targeting EGFR and IL13Rα2 in recurrent glioblastoma: phase 1 trial interim results.

Recurrent glioblastoma (rGBM) remains a major unmet medical need, with a median overall survival of less than 1 year. Here we report the first six patients with rGBM treated in a phase 1 trial of intrathecally delivered bivalent chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells targeting epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and interleukin-13 receptor alpha 2 (IL13Rα2). The study's primary endpoints were safety and determination of the maximum tolerated dose. Secondary endpoints reported in this interim analysis include the frequency of manufacturing failures and objective radiographic response (ORR) according to modified Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology criteria. All six patients had progressive, multifocal disease at the time of treatment. In both dose level 1 (1 ×107 cells; n = 3) and dose level 2 (2.5 × 107 cells; n = 3), administration of CART-EGFR-IL13Rα2 cells was associated with early-onset neurotoxicity, most consistent with immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS), and managed with high-dose dexamethasone and anakinra (anti-IL1R). One patient in dose level 2 experienced a dose-limiting toxicity (grade 3 anorexia, generalized muscle weakness and fatigue). Reductions in enhancement and tumor size at early magnetic resonance imaging timepoints were observed in all six patients; however, none met criteria for ORR. In exploratory endpoint analyses, substantial CAR T cell abundance and cytokine release in the cerebrospinal fluid were detected in all six patients. Taken together, these first-in-human data demonstrate the preliminary safety and bioactivity of CART-EGFR-IL13Rα2 cells in rGBM. An encouraging early efficacy signal was also detected and requires confirmation with additional patients and longer follow-up time. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05168423 .

Repeated peripheral infusions of anti-EGFRvIII CAR T cells in combination with pembrolizumab show no efficacy in glioblastoma: a phase 1 trial.

We previously showed that chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy targeting epidermal growth factor receptor variant III (EGFRvIII) produces upregulation of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) in the tumor microenvironment (TME). Here we conducted a phase 1 trial (NCT03726515) of CAR T-EGFRvIII cells administered concomitantly with the anti-PD1 (aPD1) monoclonal antibody pembrolizumab in patients with newly diagnosed, EGFRvIII+ glioblastoma (GBM) (n = 7). The primary outcome was safety, and no dose-limiting toxicity was observed. Secondary outcomes included median progression-free survival (5.2 months; 90% confidence interval (CI), 2.9-6.0 months) and median overall survival (11.8 months; 90% CI, 9.2-14.2 months). In exploratory analyses, comparison of the TME in tumors harvested before versus after CAR + aPD1 administration demonstrated substantial evolution of the infiltrating myeloid and T cells, with more exhausted, regulatory, and interferon (IFN)-stimulated T cells at relapse. Our study suggests that the combination of CAR T cells and PD-1 inhibition in GBM is safe and biologically active but, given the lack of efficacy, also indicates a need to consider alternative strategies.

Preoperative predictors of successful tumour localization by intraoperative molecular imaging with pafolacianine in lung cancer to create predictive nomogram.

OBJECTIVES: Intraoperative molecular imaging (IMI) uses cancer-targeted fluorescent probe to locate nodules. Pafolacianine is a Food and Drug Administration-approved fluorescent probe for lung cancer. However, it has a 8-12% false negative rate for localization. Our goal is to define preoperative predictors of tumour localization by IMI. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of patients who underwent IMI using pafolacianine for lung lesions from June 2015 to August 2019. Candidate predictors including sex, age, body mass index, smoking history, tumour size, distance of tumour from surface, use of neoadjuvant therapy and positron emission tomography avidity were included. The outcome was fluorescence in vivo and comprehensively included those who were true or false positives negatives. Multiple imputation was used to handle the missing data. The final model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Three hundred nine patients were included in our study. The mean age was 64 (standard deviation 13) and 68% had a smoking history. The mean distance of the tumours from the pleural surface was 0.4 cm (standard deviation 0.6). Smoking in pack-years and distance from pleura had an odds ratio of 0.99 [95% confidence interval: 0.98-0.99; P = 0.03] and 0.46 [95% confidence interval: 0.27-0.78; P = 0.004], respectively. The final model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.68 and was used to create a nomogram that gives a probability of fluorescence in vivo. CONCLUSIONS: Primary tumours that are deeper from the pleural surface, especially in patients with a higher pack-years, are associated with a decreased likelihood of intraoperative localization. We identified a nomogram to predict the likelihood of tumour localization with IMI with pafolacianine.

Long-term stability of clinical-grade lentiviral vectors for cell therapy.

The use of lentiviral vectors in cell and gene therapy is steadily increasing, both in commercial and investigational therapies. Although existing data increasingly support the usefulness and safety of clinical-grade lentiviral vectors used in cell manufacturing, comprehensive studies specifically addressing their long-term stability are currently lacking. This is significant considering the high cost of producing and testing GMP-grade vectors, the limited number of production facilities, and lengthy queue for production slots. Therefore, an extended shelf life is a critical attribute to justify the investment in large vector lots for investigational cell therapies. This study offers a thorough examination of essential stability attributes, including vector titer, transduction efficiency, and potency for a series of clinical-grade vector lots, each assessed at a minimum of 36 months following their date of manufacture. The 13 vector lots included in this study were used for cell product manufacturing in 16 different clinical trials, and at the time of the analysis had a maximum storage time at -80°C of up to 8 years. The results emphasize the long-term durability and efficacy of GMP-grade lentiviral vectors for use in ex vivo cell therapy manufacturing.

Dual blockade of BRD4 and ATR/WEE1 pathways exploits ARID1A loss in clear cell ovarian cancer.

ARID1A, an epigenetic tumor suppressor, is the most common gene mutation in clear-cell ovarian cancers (CCOCs). CCOCs are often resistant to standard chemotherapy and lack effective therapies. We hypothesized that ARID1A loss would increase CCOC cell dependency on chromatin remodeling and DNA repair pathways for survival. We demonstrate that combining BRD4 inhibitor (BRD4i) with DNA damage response inhibitors (ATR or WEE1 inhibitors; e.g. BRD4i-ATRi) was synergistic at low doses leading to decreased survival, and colony formation in CCOC in an ARID1A dependent manner. BRD4i-ATRi caused significant tumor regression and increased overall survival in ARID1AMUT but not ARID1AWT patient-derived xenografts. Combination BRD4i-ATRi significantly increased γH2AX, and decreased RAD51 foci and BRCA1 expression, suggesting decreased ability to repair DNA double-strand-breaks (DSBs) by homologous-recombination in ARID1AMUT cells, and these effects were greater than monotherapies. These studies demonstrate BRD4i-ATRi is an effective treatment strategy that capitalizes on synthetic lethality with ARID1A loss in CCOC.

Strategies to reduce morbidity following pleurectomy and decortication for malignant pleural mesothelioma.

BACKGROUND: Pleurectomy and decortication (PD) in malignant pleural mesothelioma has a high morbidity mostly associated with aspiration pneumonia (PNA), deep vein thrombosis (DVT), and foreign catheter sepsis. We instituted four strategies to reduce these complications and report our experience. METHODS: This was a retrospective review of patients who underwent PD at the University of Pennsylvania between 2015 and 2022. Our patients underwent standard of care PD in addition to tracheostomy and gastrostomy/jejunostomy tube with therapeutic anticoagulation (AC) leading up to surgery. Measured outcomes were postoperative PNA, DVT, and sepsis. The predicted risk of those same outcomes had patients not undergone the interventions was calculated based on the American College of Surgeons (ACS) surgical risk calculator (SRC). A McNemar's test was used to determine whether the risk of having PNA, DVT and sepsis differed between the two subgroups. RESULTS: Fifty-five patients were included in the study. The mean age was 70 years (SD 6.2) with a mean of 21 (SD 19) pack-years of smoking. PNA, DVT, and catheter-related sepsis occurred in 12, four, and seven patients, respectively. Upon using the ACS SRC prediction model of the nonintervention group, PNA, DVT and catheter related sepsis was predicted to occur in 24 (paired data OR 5, 95% CI: 1.4-17.2; McNemar's test p = 0.008), 14 (paired data OR 3.5, 95% CI: 1.15-10.6; McNemar's test p = 0.03), and 17 (paired OR 3, 95% CI: 1.09-8.3; McNemar's test p = 0.04) patients, respectively. DISCUSSION: Patients undergoing tracheostomy creation, therapeutic AC at the time of diagnosis, and gastrostomy tube placement had a reduced risk of aspiration PNA, DVT, and catheter sepsis.

Association of multi-criteria derived air toxics hazard score with lung cancer incidence in a major metropolitan area.

Background: Lung cancer remains a major health problem world-wide. Environmental exposure to lung cancer carcinogens can affect lung cancer incidence. We investigated the association between lung cancer incidence and an air toxics hazard score of environmental carcinogen exposures derived previously under the exposome concept. Methods: Lung cancer cases diagnosed in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties between 2008 and 2017 were identified from the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry. Age-adjusted incidence rates at the ZIP code level were calculated based on the residential address at diagnosis. The air toxics hazard score, an aggregate measure for lung cancer carcinogen exposures, was derived using the criteria of toxicity, persistence, and occurrence. Areas with high incidence or hazard score were identified. Spatial autoregressive models were fitted to evaluate the association, with and without adjusting for confounders. Stratified analysis by smoking prevalence was performed to examine potential interactions. Results: We observed significantly higher age-adjusted incidence rates in ZIP codes that had higher air toxics hazard score values after controlling for demographic variables, smoking prevalence, and proximity to major highways. Analyzes stratified by smoking prevalence suggested that exposure to environmental lung carcinogens had a larger effect on cancer incidence in locations with higher smoking prevalence. Conclusion: The positive association between the multi-criteria derived air toxics hazard score and lung cancer incidence provides the initial evidence to validate the hazard score as an aggregate measure of carcinogenic exposures in the environment. The hazard score can be used to supplement the existing risk factors in identifying high risk individuals. Communities with higher incidence/hazard score may benefit from greater awareness of lung cancer risk factors and targeted screening programs.

Brief Report: Second-line treatment outcomes in patients with advanced NSCLC previously treated with first-line immunotherapy regimens.

CLINICAL PRACTICE POINTS: In the United States of America, nearly all patients with advanced NSCLC, absent oncogenic drivers, receive some form of immunotherapy (IO) as part of initial treatment. Current national guidelines currently recommend against IO re-challenge if there is disease progression on IO in the first line, but re-treatment with IO is attractive given its favorable toxicity profile and descriptions of durable clinical benefit in a subset of patients treated beyond disease progression on initial IO (Gandara, J Thorac Oncol, 2018). Data in the non-clinical trial setting on the efficacy of IO in sequential lines of treatment after initial IO are lacking. In our large cohort study of patients with advanced NSCLC treated with immunotherapy regimens in the first-line setting, we find that outcomes after second-line treatment did not differ statistically by type of treatment used in the second line. While current prospective clinical trials are investigating several aspects of the utility of continuing immunotherapy and adding novel agents, our study offers data outside of a clinical trial. In addition, with the increased prevalence of adjuvant immunotherapy we urgently need to wrestle with whether to continue immunotherapy in the first-line metastatic setting if a patient experiences disease progression on adjuvant immunotherapy. While this analysis does not directly investigate that question, it does provide hypothesis-generating evidence for further evaluations.

Association Between Availability of Molecular Genotyping Results and Overall Survival in Patients With Advanced Nonsquamous Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: Current guidelines recommend molecular genotyping for patients newly diagnosed with metastatic nonsquamous (mNSq) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The association between availability of molecular genotyping before first line (1L) therapy and overall survival (OS) is not known. METHODS: We conducted a real-world cohort study using electronic health records in patients newly diagnosed with mNSq NSCLC. Cox proportional-hazards multivariable regression models were constructed to examine the association between OS and test result availability before 1L therapy, adjusting for covariates. Additional analyses were conducted to assess the consistency and strength of the relationship. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association between concurrent tissue and plasma testing (v tissue alone) and result availability. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty-six patients were included, 80% (261/326) with results available before 1L (available testing group), and 20% (65/326) without results available (unavailable testing group). With 14.2-month median follow-up, patients in the available testing group had significantly longer OS relative to the unavailable testing group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.62; P < .0001). The adjusted odds of availability of results before 1L therapy was higher with concurrent tissue and plasma testing (v tissue testing alone; adjusted odds ratio, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.09 to 3.90; P = .026). CONCLUSION: Among patients with mNSq NSCLC in a real-world cohort, availability of molecular genotyping results before 1L therapy was associated with significantly better OS. Concurrent tissue and plasma testing was associated with a higher odds of availability of results before 1L therapy. These findings warrant renewed attention to the completion of molecular genotyping before 1L therapy.

Association Between Duration of Immunotherapy and Overall Survival in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Importance: For patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with frontline immunotherapy-based treatment, the optimal duration of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment is unknown. Objective: To assess practice patterns surrounding ICI treatment discontinuation at 2 years and to evaluate the association of duration of therapy with overall survival in patients who received fixed-duration ICI therapy for 2 years vs those who continued therapy beyond 2 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, population-based cohort study included adult patients in a clinical database diagnosed with advanced NSCLC from 2016 to 2020, who received frontline immunotherapy-based treatment. The data cutoff was August 31, 2022; data analysis was conducted from October 2022 to January 2023. Exposures: Treatment discontinuation at 2 years (between 700 and 760 days, fixed duration) vs continued treatment beyond 2 years (greater than 760 days, indefinite duration). Main Outcomes and Measures: Overall survival from 760 days was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Multivariable Cox regression that adjusted for patient-specific and cancer-specific factors was used to compare survival beyond 760 days between the fixed-duration group and the indefinite-duration group. Results: Of 1091 patients in the analytic cohort who were still on ICI treatment at 2 years after exclusion criteria for death and progression were applied, 113 patients (median [IQR] age, 69 [62-75] years; 62 [54.9%] female; 86 [76.1%] White) were in the fixed-duration group, and 593 patients (median [IQR] age, 69 [62-76] years; 282 [47.6%] female; 414 [69.8%] White) were in the indefinite-duration group. Patients in the fixed-duration group were more likely to have a history of smoking (99% vs 93%; P = .01) and be treated at an academic center (22% vs 11%; P = .001). Two-year overall survival from 760 days was 79% (95% CI, 66%-87%) in the fixed-duration group and 81% (95% CI, 77%-85%) in the indefinite-duration group. There was no statistically significant difference in overall survival between patients in the fixed-duration and indefinite-duration groups, either on univariate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.26; 95% CI, 0.77-2.08; P = .36) or multivariable (HR 1.33; 95% CI, 0.78-2.25; P = .29) Cox regression. Approximately 1 in 5 patients discontinued immunotherapy at 2 years in the absence of progression. Conclusions and Relevance: In a retrospective clinical cohort of patients with advanced NSCLC who were treated with immunotherapy and were progression-free at 2 years, approximately only 1 in 5 discontinued treatment. The lack of statistically significant overall survival advantage for the indefinite-duration cohort on adjusted analysis provides reassurance to patients and clinicians who wish to discontinue immunotherapy at 2 years.

Combination ATR (ceralasertib) and PARP (olaparib) Inhibitor (CAPRI) Trial in Acquired PARP Inhibitor-Resistant Homologous Recombination-Deficient Ovarian Cancer.

PURPOSE: Addition of ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related kinase inhibitors (ATRi) to PARP inhibitors (PARPi) overcomes PARPi resistance in high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) cell and mouse models. We present the results of an investigator-initiated study of combination PARPi (olaparib) and ATRi (ceralasertib) in patients with acquired PARPi-resistant HGSOC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients had recurrent, platinum-sensitive BRCA1/2 mutated or homologous recombination (HR)-deficient (HRD) HGSOC and clinically benefited from PARPi (response by imaging/CA-125 or duration of maintenance therapy; > 12 months first-line or > 6 months ≥ second-line) before progression. No intervening chemotherapy was permitted. Patients received olaparib 300 mg twice daily and ceralasertib 160 mg daily on days 1 to 7 of a 28-day cycle. Primary objectives were safety and objective response rate (ORR). RESULTS: Thirteen patients enrolled were evaluable for safety and 12 for efficacy; 62% (n = 8) had germline BRCA1/2 mutations, 23% (n = 3) somatic BRCA1/2 mutations, and 15% (n = 2) tumors with positive HRD assay. Prior PARPi indication was treatment for recurrence (54%, n = 7), second-line maintenance (38%, n = 5) and first-line treatment with carboplatin/paclitaxel (8%, n = 1). There were 6 partial responses yielding an ORR of 50% (95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.72). Median treatment duration was 8 cycles (range 4-23+). Grade (G) 3/4 toxicities were 38% (n = 5); 15% (n = 2) G3 anemia, 23% (n = 3) G3 thrombocytopenia, 8% (n = 1) G4 neutropenia. Four patients required dose reductions. No patient discontinued treatment due to toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: Combination olaparib and ceralasertib is tolerable and shows activity in HR-deficient platinum-sensitive recurrent HGSOC that benefited and then progressed with PARPi as the penultimate regimen. These data suggest that ceralasertib resensitizes PARPi-resistant HGSOCs to olaparib, warranting further investigation.

Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry Analysis of Frataxin Proteoforms in Whole Blood as Biomarkers of the Genetic Disease Friedreich's Ataxia.

Friedreich's ataxia (FRDA) is caused primarily by expanded GAA repeats in intron 1 of both alleles of the FXN gene, which causes transcriptional silencing and reduced expression of frataxin mRNA and protein. FRDA is characterized by slowly progressive ataxia and cardiomyopathy. Symptoms generally appear during adolescence, and patients slowly progress to wheelchair dependency usually in the late teens or early twenties with death on average in the 4th decade. There are two known mature proteoforms of frataxin. Mitochondrial frataxin (frataxin-M) is a 130-amino acid protein with a molecular weight of 14,268 Da, and there is an alternatively spliced N-terminally acetylated 135-amino acid form (frataxin-E) with a molecular weight of 14,953 Da found in erythrocytes. There is reduced expression of frataxin in the heart and brain, but frataxin is not secreted into the systemic circulation, so it cannot be analyzed in serum or plasma. Blood is a readily accessible biofluid that contains numerous different cell types that express frataxin. We have found that pig blood can serve as an excellent surrogate matrix to validate an assay for frataxin proteoforms because pig frataxin is lost during the immunoprecipitation step used to isolate human frataxin. Frataxin-M is expressed in blood cells that contain mitochondria, whereas extra-mitochondrial frataxin-E is found in erythrocytes. This means that the analysis of frataxin in whole blood provides information on the concentration of both proteoforms without having to isolate the individual cell types. In the current study, we observed that the distributions of frataxin levels for a sample of 25 healthy controls and 50 FRDA patients were completely separated from each other, suggesting 100% specificity and 100% sensitivity for distinguishing healthy controls from FRDA cases, a very unusual finding for a biomarker assay. Additionally, frataxin levels were significantly correlated with the GAA repeat length and age of onset with higher correlations for extra-mitochondrial frataxin-E than those for mitochondrial frataxin-M. These findings auger well for using frataxin levels measured by the validated stable isotope dilution ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-multiple reaction monitoring/mass spectrometry assay to monitor therapeutic interventions and the natural history of FRDA. Our study also illustrates the utility of using whole blood for protein disease biomarker discovery and validation.

Anti-BCMA/CD19 CAR T Cells with Early Immunomodulatory Maintenance for Multiple Myeloma Responding to Initial or Later-Line Therapy.

We conducted a phase I clinical trial of anti-BCMA chimeric antigen receptor T cells (CART-BCMA) with or without anti-CD19 CAR T cells (huCART19) in multiple myeloma (MM) patients responding to third- or later-line therapy (phase A, N = 10) or high-risk patients responding to first-line therapy (phase B, N = 20), followed by early lenalidomide or pomalidomide maintenance. We observed no high-grade cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and only one instance of low-grade neurologic toxicity. Among 15 subjects with measurable disease, 10 exhibited partial response (PR) or better; among 26 subjects responding to prior therapy, 9 improved their response category and 4 converted to minimal residual disease (MRD)-negative complete response/stringent complete response. Early maintenance therapy was safe, feasible, and coincided in some patients with CAR T-cell reexpansion and late-onset, durable clinical response. Outcomes with CART-BCMA + huCART19 were similar to CART-BCMA alone. Collectively, our results demonstrate favorable safety, pharmacokinetics, and antimyeloma activity of dual-target CAR T-cell therapy in early lines of MM treatment. SIGNIFICANCE: CAR T cells in early lines of MM therapy could be safer and more effective than in the advanced setting, where prior studies have focused. We evaluated the safety, pharmacokinetics, and efficacy of CAR T cells in patients with low disease burden, responding to current therapy, combined with standard maintenance therapy. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 101.

Comparison of nivolumab and sorafenib for first systemic therapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis are excluded or underrepresented in clinical trials of systemic therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and comparisons of available therapies are lacking. We aimed to compare overall survival for patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis treated with nivolumab or sorafenib as first systemic treatment. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis treated at Veterans Affairs medical centers to compare overall survival, adverse events, and reason for discontinuation of therapy between patients treated with nivolumab or sorafenib as first systemic treatment. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Of those meeting inclusion criteria, 431 patients were treated with sorafenib and 79 with nivolumab. Median OS was 4.0 months (95% CI 3.5-4.8) in the sorafenib cohort and 5.0 months (95% CI 3.3-6.8) in the nivolumab cohort. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, nivolumab was associated with a significantly reduced hazard of death compared to sorafenib (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.52-0.91; p = 0.008). In a secondary analysis using propensity score methods, results did not reach statistical significance (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.55-1.06; p = 0.11). Treatment was discontinued due to toxicity in 12% of patients receiving nivolumab compared to 36% receiving sorafenib (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: In patients with HCC and Child-Pugh B cirrhosis, nivolumab treatment may be associated with improved overall survival and improved tolerability compared to sorafenib and should be considered for the first systemic treatment in this population.

Modeling post-holiday surge in COVID-19 cases in Pennsylvania counties.

COVID-19 arrived in the United States in early 2020, with cases quickly being reported in many states including Pennsylvania. Many statistical models have been proposed to understand the trends of the COVID-19 pandemic and factors associated with increasing cases. While Poisson regression is a natural choice to model case counts, this approach fails to account for correlation due to spatial locations. Being a contagious disease and often spreading through community infections, the number of COVID-19 cases are inevitably spatially correlated as locations neighboring counties with a high COVID-19 case count are more likely to have a high case count. In this analysis, we combine generalized estimating equations (GEEs) for Poisson regression, a popular method for analyzing correlated data, with a semivariogram to model daily COVID-19 case counts in 67 Pennsylvania counties between March 20, 2020 to January 23, 2021 in order to study infection dynamics during the beginning of the pandemic. We use a semivariogram that describes the spatial correlation as a function of the distance between two counties as the working correlation. We further incorporate a zero-inflated model in our spatial GEE to accommodate excess zeros in reported cases due to logistical challenges associated with disease monitoring. By modeling time-varying holiday covariates, we estimated the effect of holiday timing on case count. Our analysis showed that the incidence rate ratio was significantly greater than one, 6-8 days after a holiday suggesting a surge in COVID-19 cases approximately one week after a holiday.

Estimating the effect size of a hidden causal factor between SNPs and a continuous trait: a mediation model approach.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies and Mendelian randomization experiments have been used to identify many causal factors for complex traits in humans. Given a set of causal factors, it is important to understand the extent to which these causal factors explain some, all, or none of the genetic heritability, as measured by single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with the trait. Using the mediation model framework with SNPs as the exposure, a trait of interest as the outcome, and the known causal factors as the mediators, we hypothesize that any unexplained association between the SNPs and the outcome trait is mediated by an additional unobserved, hidden causal factor. RESULTS: We propose a method to infer the effect size of this hidden mediating causal factor on the outcome trait by utilizing the estimated associations between a continuous outcome trait, the known causal factors, and the SNPs. The proposed method consists of three steps and, in the end, implements Markov chain Monte Carlo to obtain a posterior distribution for the effect size of the hidden mediator. We evaluate our proposed method via extensive simulations and show that when model assumptions hold, our method estimates the effect size of the hidden mediator well and controls type I error rate if the hidden mediator does not exist. In addition, we apply the method to the UK Biobank data and estimate parameters for a potential hidden mediator for waist-hip ratio beyond body mass index (BMI), and find that the hidden mediator has a large effect size relatively to the effect size of the known mediator BMI. CONCLUSIONS: We develop a framework to infer the effect of potential, hidden mediators influencing complex traits. This framework can be used to place boundaries on unexplained risk factors contributing to complex traits.

Multianalyte Prognostic Signature Including Circulating Tumor DNA and Circulating Tumor Cells in Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma.

PURPOSE: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is associated with a poor prognosis. Multianalyte signatures, including liquid biopsy and traditional clinical variables, have shown promise for improving prognostication in other solid tumors but have not yet been rigorously assessed for PDAC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) or metastatic PDAC (mPDAC) who were planned to undergo systemic therapy. We collected peripheral blood before systemic therapy and assessed circulating tumor cells (CTCs), cell-free DNA concentration (cfDNA), and circulating tumor KRAS (ctKRAS)-variant allele fraction (VAF). Association of variables with overall survival (OS) was assessed in univariate and multivariate survival analysis, and comparisons were made between models containing liquid biopsy variables combined with traditional clinical prognostic variables versus models containing traditional clinical prognostic variables alone. RESULTS: One hundred four patients, 40 with LAPC and 64 with mPDAC, were enrolled. CTCs, cfDNA concentration, and ctKRAS VAF were all significantly higher in patients with mPDAC than patients with LAPC. ctKRAS VAF (cube root; 0.05 unit increments; hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.21; P = .01), and CTCs ≥ 1/mL (hazard ratio, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.34 to 3.69; P = .002) were significantly associated with worse OS in multivariate analysis while cfDNA concentration was not. A model selected by backward selection containing traditional clinical variables plus liquid biopsy variables had better discrimination of OS compared with a model containing traditional clinical variables alone (optimism-corrected Harrell's C-statistic 0.725 v 0.681). CONCLUSION: A multianalyte prognostic signature containing CTCs, ctKRAS, and cfDNA concentration outperformed a model containing traditional clinical variables alone suggesting that CTCs, ctKRAS, and cfDNA provide prognostic information complementary to traditional clinical variables in advanced PDAC.

Patterns of Use, Outcomes, and Resource Utilization among Recipients of Commercial Axicabtagene Ciloleucel and Tisagenlecleucel for Relapsed/Refractory Aggressive B Cell Lymphomas.

Axicabtagene ciloleucel (axi-cel) and tisagenlecleucel (tisa-cel) are CD19-directed chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapies approved for the treatment of relapsed/refractory aggressive B cell lymphomas. We present a multicenter retrospective study among centers that prescribe either commercial product to evaluate usage patterns, safety and efficacy outcomes, and resource utilization. Data collection included all patients from 8 US centers who underwent apheresis between May 1, 2018, and July 31, 2019. Patient selection, toxicity management, and disease assessment followed institutional practices. Cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS) were graded according to American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy consensus criteria, and tumor responses were assessed according to the Lugano 2014 classification scheme. A total of 260 patients underwent apheresis, including 168 (65%) for axi-cel and 92 (35%) for tisa-cel. Among the infused patients, the median age was 59 years for axi-cel recipients and 67 years for tisa-cel recipients (P < .001). The median time from apheresis to infusion was 28 days for axi-cel recipients and 45 days for tisa-cel recipients (P < .001). Sixty-one percent of the axi-cel recipients and 43% of the tisa-cel recipients would have been ineligible for the ZUMA-1 and JULIET trials, respectively. Grade ≥3 CRS occurred in 9% of axi-cel recipients and in 1% of tisa-cel recipients (P = .017), and grade ≥3 ICANS was seen in 38% of axi-cel recipients and 1% of tisa-cel recipients (P < .001). Inpatient cell therapy infusion was common (92% in axi-cel recipients, 37% in tisa-cel recipients). The day 90 overall response rate was 52% in the axi-cel group and 41% in the tisa-cel group (P = .113), with complete response in 44% and 35%, respectively (P = .319). Twelve-month progression-free survival (42% versus 32%; P = .206) and overall survival (62% versus 59%; P = .909) rates were comparable in the axi-cel and tisa-cel groups. Baseline characteristics differed between the 2 groups, although response rates and survival outcomes were comparable, albeit lower than those in the pivotal trials. Safety and resource utilization appear to be key differentiators between axi-cel and tisa-cel.